It's that time of year again.

[Drip_Torch]

Be careful out there.

[Frisk]

Drip torch, are you a firefighter? You always seem to get good videos.

[Drip_Torch]

Qualize, I'll be fairly honest with you. Even when I did have cat claws, could walk up hill all day, and bounced when I fell - I still couldn't hold a video camera semi-steady and swing a Pulaski at the same time.

Currently, I'm: (pick one)

a) a completely crazy fire storm chaser; looking to upgrade my wardrobe with a new and much coveted Castenet news t-shirt.

b) an anti-global warming activist; on a one-man crusade to cut down on green house gas emissions, through the discouragement of potential looky-lous, by providing access to adequate video footage of current fire situations.

c) a starving artist; attempting to paint a rather complicated mosaic, simply because I feel the "97%" don't seem to be equitably represented by Main Stream Media.

d) all of the above.

I suspect it will all become quite apparent sometime in the next 13 to 26 months; based on current long term atmospheric modeling and my understanding of historic trends.


{Disclaimer: Drip_Torch is not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information contained in this posting, or for the results obtained from the use of any information contained herein. All information in this post is provided "as is", with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness, or of the results obtained from the use of this information. Drip_Torch makes no warranty of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will Drip_Torch, his affiliates, partners or viable genetic materials be liable to any party for any damages of any kind whatsoever, including consequential damages, arising from any use of or inability to use this post, or any information provided herein, or decision made or action taken in reliance upon such information, even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

All future predictions are based on the subjective assessment of chicken bones thrown onto a Ouija board, or such similar processes, as may be substituted from time to time. Though Drip_Torch believes this information to be accurate at the time of its posting, there may be omissions or inaccuracies in this information.}

[Glacier]

I can only find stats back to 2002. It looks like we haven't had a really active year in a about 5 years, I wonder what this year will bring?

Here is a break down of the number of large fires by fire centre (>=5 ha). Notice that all fire centres except the Cariboo have been trending downwards since 2002.

List of the 10 largest fires in that time...

Note: I recently drove by the #1 fire on the above list. Yup, she was a huge one, but it made viewing the Smith River falls a lot easier because there were no trees obstructing the view.

[Lady tehMa]

o.o Let's hope it isn't a bad year . . . but prepare as if it is. Be careful out there folks!

[bob vernon]

Next year will have far more fires. We haven't had a really strong El Nino for at least a decade and there is one starting over the Pacific and will continue through the winter. The warm winter allows snow to remain in the higher elevations of the interior with the valley bottoms losing their snow off and on over the winter. And the valleys will start the fire season on the dry side and early. Even with only average rainfall in the spring rainfall season (June), next July and especially August look to have more fires.

[Drip_Torch]

^^^ Way to spoil the magic.^^^

We're also at the very top end of an extremely deep drought south of us and there is the possibility of unusually dry air contributing to anomalous fire weather later in this season.

IMHO

[Glacier]

It has also been the wettest summer on record to the north of BC, so extreme drought to the south and extreme moisture to the north could combine for some dry lightning activity in our area.

[kgcayenne]

...then we'll have an interface fire, then houses will burn like 2003, then the vacancy rate will get worse, the housing market will boom again...

[Star Light]

o.o Let's hope it isn't a bad year . . . but prepare as if it is. Be careful out there folks!

Well said Lady. Aye lets all be careful out there.

[Frisk]

Okanagan is moderate - high right now + a week of forecasted temps above 35C. please be careful.

[Glacier]

Okanagan is moderate - high right now + a week of forecasted temps above 35C. please be careful.

Please read carefully. None of the 4 weather stations in the Okanagan are moderate. Two of them are extreme (Vernon and Salmon Arm), and two are high (Penticton and Rock Creek). Moderate can only be found way up on the Connector.

[Frisk]

Too hot for me...

[Fancy]

Good possibility weather temp may not get that high but I am enjoying the heat.

[Glacier]

Forecasts look a lot more impressive in Fahrenheit... http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?bc-33&unit=i