CON majority

[GrooveTunes]

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/09/24/conservatives-swing-into-lead-close-in-on-majority-government-new-poll-suggests.html

[Glacier]

I wouldn't be so pessimistic at this point. Other polls show them in third place. Balancing them all out, puts them up to first place at 31%. They would need 37% at least to get a majority, and I do not see that happening.

I do think that you'll see quite a bit of drop in NDP support in Quebec over the latest statement about the niqab. Most will go to the Bloc, but possibly some to the conservatives.

[Retrosnap]

I wouldn't be so pessimistic at this point. Other polls show them in third place. Balancing them all out, puts them up to first place at 31%. They would need 37% at least to get a majority, and I do not see that happening.

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/po ... html#polls

CBC poll tracker, which aggregates polls, now shows the CPC in 1st place, and likey to win 125 seats. The latest aggregate doesn't show the surprising results of the Star poll, which shows the CPC surging to the lead in Ontario. Polls are also showing an accelerated slide in NDP popularity in Quebec, which makes tonight's French language debate all the more interesting.

[logicalview]

Any party that panders to Quebec is going to lose. They are so schizo. And by pandering to them, all you do is *bleep* off every other region of Canada. Mulcair has tried to please everyone, and in the end, he will end up pleasing no one. And I for one am so happy about that. Good bye NDP. We hardly knew thee. But the part we did know made us sick.

[ferri]

*stay on topic please! thanks.

[GrooveTunes]

http://www.greaterfool.ca/

[Glacier]

Greater Fool readers don't represent a random sample of Canadians; people interested in TSFAs, markets, etc. tend to lean right.

[George+]

Average these over the weeks and they are all still close:

Week 8: CPC 30.8% LPC 30.7% NDP 28.7% GPC 4.9% BQ 4.0%
Week 7: NDP 30.7% CPC 30.0% LPC 29.8% GPC 5.6% BQ 3.3%
Week 6: NDP 31.7% LPC 30.3% CPC 29.1% GPC 4.9% BQ 3.5%
Week 5: NDP 32.4% LPC 29.9% CPC 27.2% GPC 5.1% BQ 4.1%
Week 4: NDP 33.9% CPC 28.4% LPC 27.9% GPC 5.0% BQ 3.8%
Week 3: NDP 32.7% CPC 29.4% LPC 28.0% GPC 5.1% BQ 3.9%
Week 2: NDP 31.8% CPC 29.8% LPC 27.5% GPC 5.4% BQ 4.6%
Week 1: NDP 34.7% CPC 29.6% LPC 26.8% BQ 4.6% GPC 4.0%

[Veovis]

Average these over the weeks and they are all still close:

Week 8: CPC 30.8% LPC 30.7% NDP 28.7% GPC 4.9% BQ 4.0%
Week 7: NDP 30.7% CPC 30.0% LPC 29.8% GPC 5.6% BQ 3.3%
Week 6: NDP 31.7% LPC 30.3% CPC 29.1% GPC 4.9% BQ 3.5%
Week 5: NDP 32.4% LPC 29.9% CPC 27.2% GPC 5.1% BQ 4.1%
Week 4: NDP 33.9% CPC 28.4% LPC 27.9% GPC 5.0% BQ 3.8%
Week 3: NDP 32.7% CPC 29.4% LPC 28.0% GPC 5.1% BQ 3.9%
Week 2: NDP 31.8% CPC 29.8% LPC 27.5% GPC 5.4% BQ 4.6%
Week 1: NDP 34.7% CPC 29.6% LPC 26.8% BQ 4.6% GPC 4.0%

The catch though is it isn't about averages. IF you average out the past 75 years someone else will be most popular, but that won't change what happens on the 19th (whatever that may be)

[George+]

Most parties actually get about the average of their weekly results during a campaign.

[Omnitheo]

This is because not all polls are the same. Some are conducted via different means than others, which can result in biases based on the method. Take phone polling for instance. Have I ever received a polling call? No, because my primary phone is a cell. It's unlisted in the phone book, and 90% of the people my age that I know are in the same boat. That leaves the older "clinging to land line" demographic being mostly right wing.

[George+]

Agree.

Everyone who is voting, should have to read the Michael Harris book...

Party of One

It s impossible to imagine anyone wanting to vote Conservative,
with the Horrendous record of Harper and Company detailed there.

It will do little good to simply switch to the Liberals..many similar players.

Glad to hear the opinions of others who have read the book...written by a respected journalist.

[Urbane]

Agree.

Everyone who is voting, should have to read the Michael Harris book...

Party of One

It s impossible to imagine anyone wanting to vote Conservative,
with the Horrendous record of Harper and Company detailed there.

It will do little good to simply switch to the Liberals..many similar players.

Glad to hear the opinions of others who have read the book...written by a respected journalist.

Trudeau is similar to Harper?? Interesting. If you want change in Ottawa do what I'm doing and vote Liberal. Don't waste your vote on a third place party that's sinking faster than the Titanic.

[George+]

Strategic voting is essential.

In most ridings that is the NDP if you want the Cons gone.

[logicalview]

Agree.

Everyone who is voting, should have to read the Michael Harris book...

Party of One
.

Really, everyone who is voting should be forced to read radical leftist propaganda before they vote eh? That truly sounds like democracy to me all right.