The polls

Discuss the upcoming elections here.
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Urbane
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Re: The polls

Post by Urbane »

    George+ wrote:Hmmm...

    Liberal votes going to Greens in Lower Mainland.

    Very interesting.

And yet they've been closing the gap on the stagnant NDP. Meanwhile, you forgot to mention that on Vancouver Island the Greens have pulled ahead of the NDP. Big story there.
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maryjane48
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Re: The polls

Post by maryjane48 »

every seat that the bclibs do not win is a win for british columbians . no one said the fight against corrupt politicians was going to be easy .


we shall fight them on the beaches we shall fight them in the streets
we shall never surrender :biggrin:
mr.bandaid
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Re: The polls

Post by mr.bandaid »

I will wait until election day and the votes are counted before I post any smiley faces.....or not.
Never argue with an idiot, they will just drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
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Urbane
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Re: The polls

Post by Urbane »

    mr.bandaid wrote:I will wait until election day and the votes are counted before I post any smiley faces.....or not.
Good idea. Here's an excellent article on the polls and the folly of strategic voting:

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-b-c ... ic-voting/
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Merry
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Re: The polls

Post by Merry »

I wish they'd just ban political polls altogether, particularly during election campaigns. Because it's far too easy to get the result you want, simply by carefully wording the question.
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mr.bandaid
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Re: The polls

Post by mr.bandaid »

Thanks for the link Urbane but I don't care about polls, they are meaningless. They can be skewed either way depending on the demographic. For instance, you poll Kelowna you're going to get a very skewed result. Like I have mentioned before, you could run a house plant here for the liberals and it would win.
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Urbane
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Re: The polls

Post by Urbane »

    mr.bandaid wrote:Thanks for the link Urbane but I don't care about polls, they are meaningless. They can be skewed either way depending on the demographic. For instance, you poll Kelowna you're going to get a very skewed result. Like I have mentioned before, you could run a house plant here for the liberals and it would win.
The gist of the article was that polls shouldn't be taken seriously. And that those voting strategically on the basis of polls could be making a big mistake.
mr.bandaid
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Re: The polls

Post by mr.bandaid »

That's what I have always found. The last provincial election was a prime example. The liberals should not have even been close as reported by the polls but voters are fickle and Dix was dumb enough to say the wrong thing and a government who did not really deserve the win got it. I'm not saying the Liberals have done a terrible job I am just supporting what you are saying in that polls are not reliable enough to base your one and only opinion of who to vote for.
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Urbane
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Re: The polls

Post by Urbane »

    mr.bandaid wrote:That's what I have always found. The last provincial election was a prime example. The liberals should not have even been close as reported by the polls but voters are fickle and Dix was dumb enough to say the wrong thing and a government who did not really deserve the win got it. I'm not saying the Liberals have done a terrible job I am just supporting what you are saying in that polls are not reliable enough to base your one and only opinion of who to vote for.

Yes, and another factor comes down to who will actually vote. The NDP are doing well with young people while the Liberals are doing well with older people. Will the young people show up at the polls this year?
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The Green Barbarian
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Re: The polls

Post by The Green Barbarian »

its a fact, people who poll for the NDP can't be counted on to actually vote. The pollsters never seem to learn this.
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mr.bandaid
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Re: The polls

Post by mr.bandaid »

I stated that earlier in this thread I think. Most of the final numbers will be totally dependent on who actually shows up to vote come election day. There is no poll that can make that prediction accurately.
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George+
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Re: The polls

Post by George+ »

Actually polls show NDP voters are most committed.

And, Urbane, Green support on VI is skewed because of strong support in a couple of ridings.

I am surprised they are pulling Liberal votes in the Lower Mainland.

We all know the Greens cannot win a majority but that they can make it closer between the Fibs and the NDP.

I.e. could a couple of Green seats force a minority govt?
Yup.
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Urban Cowboy
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Re: The polls

Post by Urban Cowboy »

George+ wrote:Actually polls show NDP voters are most committed.


The polls also showed the NDP would win last election, and we know how that turned out.
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hobbyguy
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Re: The polls

Post by hobbyguy »

Maybe, as Andrew Weaver and the Greens are showing that they are credible, have honest policies, and can do math, more and more disgruntled NDP voters choose them.

They should. Far better leadership and much more honest.

That would give us a Liberal minority, a Green opposition and an NDP rump. I could like that.

Go Andrew! Go Greens!
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George+
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Re: The polls

Post by George+ »

I too have some respect for Andrew Weaver and have voted Green.
But Clark and the Liberals have screwed up so badly that only the NDP,
Will move them out.

But better to vote Greens than Liberals.

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