The polls

[Urbane]

Just finished reading the conclusions in the report.

Election results, especially from the past few years always seem to surprise the pollsters and many of the media pundits as well. After reading the summary, however, my own biased opinion is that it will be a liberal victory on Tuesday.

- The NDP has to pick up 9 seats provincially...the libs need only to hold, or limit their losses to 3 seats
- The Libs hold a commanding lead in suburbs of greater vancouver, and stand to pick up 3 seats as a result of two new seats and a retiring independant in solidly liberal ridings
- the NDP is only marginally ahead of the Libs on the island...vote splitting could conceivably result in the liberals taking a seat or two despite losing the popular vote. Vote splitting allowed the 1996 NDP to win despite losing the popular vote.

The downward trend in the polling numbers, and Horgan's continued insistence that he'll tell us how he'll accomplish things AFTER he wins, like today's announcement that he'll tell us all how he plans to stop the Trans Mountain pipeline, all point to another liberal victory. It's going to be an interesting night on Tuesday.

Add to that the fact that older people, who tend to support the Liberals, are more apt to actually vote than younger people, who tend to support the NDP. I was listening to am1150 this morning and students at UBCO were asked about the election. Some didn't even know there was an election and didn't know who the leaders were. They might be NDP supporters but they're not apt to vote.

Also, the "undecided" voters, certainly in recent elections, tend to move more to the incumbent party than to the challengers so that's in the Liberals' favour. And the pollsters say that in terms of winning seats it's more difficult for the NDP because their vote isn't that efficient. Finally, when you see that voters may be tired of the Liberals but they see Clark as a better premier than Horgan and when you see, by a wide margin, that people believe the Liberals will win, those are very telling responses. Five more days!

[mr.bandaid]

I honestly don't think people are so fed up with the liberals so much as they have had enough of the old guard Christy, DeJong and the chubby guy whose name I always forget. A close race may get rid of a few of those on both sides and put some fresh ideas into office.

[The Green Barbarian]

[Urbane]

^^ Reminds of those students at UBCO I heard on the radio this morning who had no idea who the party leaders were and no idea that we were having an election.

[mr.bandaid]

I even shook the guys hand once and can't remember his name. Must have made a wonderful impression on me. Funny thing, I couldn't name a member of congress either.
I googled it, Rich Coleman.
Senator Jame Abnor ( I googled that too)

[mr.bandaid]

^^ Reminds of those students at UBCO I heard on the radio this morning who had no idea who the party leaders were and no idea that we were having an election.

I never said I had no idea but for some reason I always forget his name.

[Leifer]

What about those of us that don't support the Liberals or the NDP that don't live in the Okanagon, Are we allowed to post here ?

You sir, can post where you want....whenever you want....about whatever you want.

I was just interested in understanding why anyone in the NDP camp would waste their time trying to sway people in this particular region.
Victoria South and North Van are some real battlegrounds where the NDP could either win some seats....or stave off the Greens from taking some away.

[Urbane]

I never said I had no idea but for some reason I always forget his name.

No, I was talking about the Jimmy Kimmel video that GB posted. I wasn't picking on you this time:)

[Merry]

^^ Reminds of those students at UBCO I heard on the radio this morning who had no idea who the party leaders were and no idea that we were having an election.

I saw that on TV too and was shocked. Those students represent the "better educated" of our young people, yet they appear to be woefully ignorant of even the most basic facts about our political system. Doesn't bode well for the future, does it?

[lasnomadas]

^^That's precisely the reason we should pay no attention to political polls. There are just so many politically-challenged people in this country that we just never know what the heck they're going to do once inside that polling booth.

[Merry]

You make a good point lasnomadas. Sad, isn't it?

[Urban Cowboy]

^^That's precisely the reason we should pay no attention to political polls. There are just so many politically-challenged people in this country that we just never know what the heck they're going to do once inside that polling booth.

I find that a rather ironic statement, considering you've been celebrating an NDP victory for quite some time already, whilst the rest of us have openly conceded we need to see what happens on election day.

[Queen K]

We do.

Copious amounts of liquor should be flowing.
Or Kool-aid.

[lasnomadas]

Wrong again as usual, OT. I vote for the candidate, not the party, unlike the Christy Cheerleaders. It's a well-known fact that if Charlie Manson got paroled, moved to B.C. and became leader of the BC Liberal Party, they'd win this election.......even if J.C. himself came back and ran for the NDP or the Greens.

[Urbane]

Wrong again as usual, OT. I vote for the candidate, not the party, unlike the Christy Cheerleaders. It's a well-known fact that if Charlie Manson got paroled, moved to B.C. and became leader of the BC Liberal Party, they'd win this election.......even if J.C. himself came back and ran for the NDP or the Greens.

There are partisans in ALL parties who would only vote for their party. In 2001, when the failed government of the NDP had to face the electorate, the NDP lost much of their traditional support but there were those partisans who still voted NDP. The current Liberal government is a successful one with the strongest economy in the country so it's not really a Charles Manson situation, now is it? Just bringing you back to the present . . . and reality.