Who do you think will win the provincial election in May?

[Urbane]

After today there are only three days until the election. At the beginning of the campaign I was thinking that the "kick the bums out" sentiment might just be enough for the NDP this time despite their obvious downside. However, what lead the NDP had seems to be shrinking fast just like it did in 2013.

Unfortunately for the NDP, Andrew Weaver has caused a lot of excitement amongst those on the left and he's stolen a lot of Horgan's thunder. If there was a turning point in this campaign it came during the televised debate when Andrew Weaver totally dismantled Horgan. Horgan was so flustered he even said that the Liberals would win the election.

At this late date, with only three days to go until the election, people are still waiting to see how Horgan will pay for his promises. Telling us that he'll form a committee to figure it out later, when most of us know that raising taxes is a big part of the plan, just isn't cutting it.

So who will win? The momentum is definitely with the Liberals and those who don't want the NDP to take over the province are motivated and will get out and vote. It'll be close but come Tuesday night I won't be too surprised if Christy Clark is given another term as premier. I also won't be surprised if it's a minority Liberal government with Andrew Weaver deciding if he wants to work with someone who is civil or someone who explodes on him. We'll see.

[fluffy]

I have to agree with that. rustled said it perfectly in a post earlier today, that Horgan has yet to give us a good reason to vote for him, all he has is reasons not to vote for the Libs. Unless he has some sort of magnum opus tucked away for release this weekend I think the downward trend in his support will continue.

[Glacier]

I've created this map for you folks to view.

<80% = leaning
80-95% = likely
>95% = safe seat

election2017.png

[fluffy]

Of course, with the two mainstream parties running so close, the Greens could inadvertantly become the kingmakers. It is definitely the undecided vote that is going to rule the day, and just where those x's land.

[Merry]

I suspect there are still many who (even at this late hour) are undecided, and won't even know themselves who they'll vote for until they're actually in the voting booth. And the reason I think that is because there just as many negatives as positives about EACH of the 3 platforms. Not a single one of them stands out as being a "clear winner", making it very hard for all (except the "die hard" partisans) to come to a decision.

[lasnomadas]

I agree, Merry. I wasn't impressed with any of the leaders in the televised debate. I think perhaps this time, for once, people are going to vote for their candidate, not the party. At least, that's what I did last weekend. I also think that this is the sign of a true democracy. Imagine, if you will, a state with no political parties, just independent candidates. Imagine what would happen in the Kelowna West riding, for instance. Do you think Christy Clark, as an independent candidate would win her seat?

I don't.

[Bsuds]

I always vote for the candidate who I "hope" will do the best job.

We really have no say in who will be premier and I don't want to cut off my nose to spite my face.

pa: the one who will win is the one with the most votes!

[Urban Cowboy]

I always vote for the candidate who I "hope" will do the best job.

We really have no say in who will be premier and I don't want to cut off my nose to spite my face.

pa: the one who will win is the one with the most votes!

Pity there aren't more willing to follow such sage advice.

[lasnomadas]

The Premier will be the leader of the party that gets the most seats, not necessarily the one that gets the most votes. That's why we need electoral reform, but as long as we end up with majority governments, that's not going to happen.

[mr.bandaid]

I have taken the leaders out of the equation and have tried to look at the people running in my riding. Unfortunately Chrisy is one of those people. She is absent, has no vested interest in this riding and does not support BC education system with her education of her own child. So with that in mind I am down to what's left. Slim fricken pickens indeed.

[Hurtlander]

Although I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals won next Tuesday because many voters have a healthy fear of the NDP, I also wouldn't be surprised if Horgan or even Weaver won the election. Christy was not well liked leading up to the last election, she was just as despised then as she is now, but because she kept promising hundreds of thousands of LNG jobs, she promised families first, she promised to eliminate the debt altogether, she promised every British Columbian a family doctor by 2015 etc...and with Dix really screwing up with his Kinder surprise, the majority decided to give Christy another chance based on her promises. However, Christy hasn't followed through on any of her promises, not even one. Rather than eliminate the debt, the debt is growing at a record setting pace, there's still a few hundred thousand people without a doctor......
The outcome of this election is virtually impossible to predict. The question is, are people now willing to give the NDP a chance, or will they ignore the fact that Christy never follows through with her promises, and gives the electorate nothing but lip service, and vote for her government yet again. Next Tuesday will be interesting.

ETA: another thing to take under consideration; BC has the healthiest economy in the country, but that's only because of the hot housing market in the lower mainland, and to some extent in the Okanagon region. Back in 2013 the entire British Columbian economy was booming, in every region. Right now there's huge areas of northern BC that's nearly at 13% unemployed rate, this is in traditional Liberal ridings. That's another situation that makes this election difficult to predict.

[George+]

If we let the Greens split the vote there is a good possibility
That Clark could have a greater majority.

Greens must carefully consider voting NDP for this election.

[Urbane]

If we let the Greens split the vote there is a good possibility
That Clark could have a greater majority.

Greens must carefully consider voting NDP for this election.

Here's what Andrew Weaver says about your idea:

Weaver says British Columbians shouldn’t be bullied into voting against their favourite candidate.

Weaver also says strategic voting is a farce because if that were true, “both Liberals and NDP should all vote Green because we know that there’s as many people voting Liberal because they don’t want the NDP in, as voting NDP because they don’t want the Liberals in. Voters are smarter than that. If people continue to vote for the lesser of two evils, they’ll get the lesser of two evils, but the lesser of two evils, is still not very good.”

http://www.news1130.com/2017/05/05/gree ... r-tactics/

[maryjane48]

lol . weaver is the bait and switch bclib stooge .

[Hurtlander]

If we let the Greens split the vote there is a good possibility
That Clark could have a greater majority.

Greens must carefully consider voting NDP for this election.

I sort of disagree with that George. I think that many liberals who've had enough of Christy Clarks shenanigans, but who absolutely will not vote NDP, will hold their noses and vote Green... The Greens pose as great a risk to the Liberals as they do the NDP.



Ok, I'm signing off until the Edmonton game is over.