Weather Warning or Fear Mongering?

[LTD]

I like to sled in the morning and golf or quad maybe even take the boat out in the afternoon if its nice enough not many places you can do that

[GordonH]

If rapid snowpack melt was to start happening with the saturation in some area's of southern interior.
Could be a very rough late May & June.

its either fire risks or flooding, this year flooding.

[RupertBear]

Also keep in mind that traditionally, there are more days with a measurable rainfall than there are days without a measurable rainfall, in the period between the May long weekend and the July long weekend.

[LTD]

bosoran telling everyone that Kelowna is open for business wont make people living on the lake happy when its above full pool and theres a thousand wakeboard boats flying around

[tsayta]

I heard someone say the other day that the wet spring has led to a surge in brushy understory growth and that by late July it could be tinder dry and a fire hazard. Dammit I said tinder. I'm grounded

[Glacier]

I've seen this morning's Mission Creek headwaters snow pillow data. Here are the facts...

-About 10% of the snow pack has melted

-Even the leftover remaining snow is much more than the average peak and is there much later than average

-The forecast temperatures for the next while is average or below average

-The longer this melt is delayed, the higher the probability of a stretch of hot weather arriving and causing an 'all at once' melt

That is not fear mongering

Quite right. I also share those concerns. If the temperatures are near average or slightly above, the snow will melt moderately, and not flood. But if they are much cooler than normal, and we continue to stay wet, and then it hits 35C for a week, LOOK OUT!

I wish the mayor would have said, "we have more rains coming Thursday, and this will cause the creeks to rise to where they were last week. If water has receded from your property, it's likely going to come back."

Of course, that wouldn't make national news, but would have been the more accurate statement to make.

[Glacier]

That's what happened back in 1972 (In my part of the Okanogan.) There was a ton of snow in the mountains and at the end of May it suddenly got blazing hot. Thankfully my grandpa brought a rowboat to our house so I could go out row down Highway 97.

1948 was a massive flood year too, but the mother of all flood was 1894. They did not keep snow pack records back then, and there were only 4 weather stations in all of BC at the time, so it's hard to know exactly what happened, but it looks like Spring was cool, then the rains hit in mid-May, followed by a 35 degree heatwave. Even the super dry Spences Bridge received over 50 mm on May 15 and 16 of that year. Then it 38C (100F) by the 21st.

Here's a flood marker in Kamloops that I took in 2012 during a flood event. The top line is 1894, the other lines are 1948, 1972, and 1999...

kamloopsflood.jpg

[lightspeed]

bosoran telling everyone that Kelowna is open for business wont make people living on the lake happy when its above full pool and theres a thousand wakeboard boats flying around

It would be nice if tourists, visitors, and various other self indulgent idiots could keep away so the city (the population, not the official disorganized goofs) could take care of a crisis that could ruin peoples homes and cause huge inconvenience.

But hey, tourist dollars take priority. Not local residents.

[Graham Adder]

Fear Mongering?
Yes, without doubt.
National Photo op?
Absolutely.

Question is:
Why?

It's either based on money (as in there is money to made when disaster strikes)
or
It's a distraction from an issue Colleen Basran doesn't want a spotlight on right now.

I have an idea!!!
Let's explore!

[tsayta]

Fear Mongering?
Yes, without doubt.
National Photo op?
Absolutely.

Question is:
Why?
Lol. You are on to something

It's either based on money (as in there is money to made when disaster strikes)
or
It's a distraction from an issue Colleen Basran doesn't want a spotlight on right now.

I have an idea!!!
Let's explore!

You are on to something (you forgot vanity tho)

[Graham Adder]

I took a bit of offense with basran showing up for a photo op and to play good mayor .
Where was he last week?

Yes, where WAS he last week?
Dig.

[DuaneT]

I have been reading this forum with great interest. As an Emergency manager/ Disaster preparedness consultant I do have some additional insight the will explain all the media releases asking you to get prepared.

First and foremost, we are dealing with weather and as we all know weather changes. So, when an alert is put out there it is with the intention of making sure that the public is aware what is coming.
And as the case of Thursday night, anyone that was watching the weather on the radar could see the rain storm coming, getting to a mountain range and see it defect in a different direction away from Kelowna. That happened to three weather systems that were supposed to hit the city. The one that got though started after 9 pm as we know.
The bad part about the deflecting rain is that it rained on the snow-covered hills causing more snow melt and water being brought down as the ground is saturated. This is going to sound bad but it would have been more beneficial for the rain to hit the city as we have no snow and no more moisture would have been added to it.
As for the water levels being mentioned, you must remember that water travels downhill. we may not have seen the rain that was predicted down in the valley but it did rain very hard in the hills around us. So, it takes about 8 to 12 hours for that water to travel from its starting point to the lake level. Either by above ground streams or underground ones.

Secondly and regretfully we now live in a society that like to call their lawyers and sue. So, in our training/seminars and many discussions we have all come to the conclusion, it is better to warn and get the public prepared for an event even if there is the slightest chance something catastrophic could happen. Cause in reality the same people that laugh/complain about the over warnings are usually the first people that scream bloody murder when a disaster strikes and they were not given enough notice if we knew it could happen. Many people don’t realize this but there are approximately 86 different types of disasters that have been recognized as effecting the human population. So, you might see alerts for things that might not effect you but will affect other people.

Thirdly, the warnings also give everyone a chance to get their affairs in order and look at being self sufficient for 72 hours. (personally, I recommend 96 hours). So, take the time and make sure you have the things most prized to you handy and ready to go. Stock up on some extra medication or make sure your prescriptions are filled, make sure you have a full tank of gas and a place to go if needed. Make sure you have the dietary supplies needed to get through the time.

It terms in making announcements, having a mayor, council members or people that are well know in the public eye just brings more attention the issue at hand. This is not a public display for votes as announcing that your city is in danger isn’t popular with them. As the media picks up the story and it spreads around the country or world, there is economic effects that could happen. That makes everyone nervous.

As for people that say the city should be better prepared in this, I can only say that as a private contractor who looks at disaster preparedness, I would love to spend your tax dollars and make sure that events like this wouldn’t happen. Give me a few million dollars to spend and I would be able to mitigate the problem to a point that you would hardly notice it. However, the taxpayer would lose their mind.

Public perception thinks disaster preparedness is a waste of money. But if I told you that for every 1 dollar you spend being prepared would save you 15 dollars in recovery cost, would you agree to spend that money and get set up.

I wish I could say that this is an exact science, but its not. What I can tell you is that the world is constantly changing between our human interaction or mother nature itself. In the game of disasters, there is always one winner. That is mother nature, all we can do is ask for you to be prepared for what comes next.

Hope this helped.

[lesliepaul]

It wasn't 6 weeks ago some of the "sky is falling" tree-huggers were yapping the snow pack is less than ever and doom and gloom is all that is in our futures. NOW I read the snow pack is greater than in years............go figure. Hypocritical tree-hugging zealots I guess are wired to continuously say black when its white and white when its black with no middle ground.

[Graham Adder]

I have been reading this forum with great interest. As an Emergency manager/ Disaster preparedness consultant I do have some additional insight the will explain all the media releases asking you to get prepared.

First and foremost, we are dealing with weather and as we all know weather changes. So, when an alert is put out there it is with the intention of making sure that the public is aware what is coming.
And as the case of Thursday night, anyone that was watching the weather on the radar could see the rain storm coming, getting to a mountain range and see it defect in a different direction away from Kelowna.
<snip>
The bad part about the deflecting rain is that it rained on the snow-covered hills causing more snow melt and water being brought down as the ground is saturated. This is going to sound bad but it would have been more beneficial for the rain to hit the city as we have no snow and no more moisture would have been added to it.
<snip>
So, it takes about 8 to 12 hours for that water to travel from its starting point to the lake level. Either by above ground streams or underground ones.

Secondly and regretfully we now live in a society that like to call their lawyers and sue. So, in our training/seminars and many discussions we have all come to the conclusion, it is better to warn and get the public prepared for an event even if there is the slightest chance something catastrophic could happen.
<snip>
So, you might see alerts for things that might not effect you but will affect other people.

Thirdly, the warnings also give everyone a chance to get their affairs in order and look at being self sufficient for 72 hours. (personally, I recommend 96 hours). So, take the time and make sure you have the things most prized to you handy and ready to go. Stock up on some extra medication or make sure your prescriptions are filled, make sure you have a full tank of gas and a place to go if needed. Make sure you have the dietary supplies needed to get through the time.

It terms in making announcements, having a mayor, council members or people that are well know in the public eye just brings more attention the issue at hand.
<snip>

Public perception thinks disaster preparedness is a waste of money. But if I told you that for every 1 dollar you spend being prepared would save you 15 dollars in recovery cost, would you agree to spend that money and get set up.

I wish I could say that this is an exact science, but its not. What I can tell you is that the world is constantly changing between our human interaction or mother nature itself. In the game of disasters, there is always one winner. That is mother nature, all we can do is ask for you to be prepared for what comes next.

Hope this helped.

First and foremost:
According to your information, we should be experiencing a 200 year flood. An event so catastrophic, that a call to all hands on deck is in order to help minimize the devastation to our city.
It's been past 12 hours since the rain fell onto the mountains and melted the snow creating a worse event than we'd have seen had the 200 year flood been brought on by a direct hit.

Where's the beef?


Secondly:
The fact that we now live in a society that promotes early warnings does not equate to the fear mongering we witnessed by our
Sugarplum fairy. Putting out warnings can be done without adding drama for effect...or distraction.

Thirdly, we don't need to pack like this is a shutdown of the grid.
Packing water, food, extra med's and reacting like this is a Y2K bug gone awry is NOT necessary and I question why you would want people to pack heavy for a short trip. I also question why we are reacting as though the basics will be scarce.

Even if I get flooded out, it's less than a tiring walk to go to a store that will have all I need.

The reports of shelves being stripped was an all out lie, just like this whole thing is a lie.
Yes we have snow pack that could create flooding.
No, you need not build an ark.
Yes, there are families that are losing MATERIAL POSSESSIONS, but to say they are facing doom and gloom as some drama-queens state is absurd and bordering on socially "delayed".

Yes, having a Sugarplum fairy and some useless overpaid Councillors to put the word out DOES indeed help to spread the word. Let's replace "word" with "fear". Oh, look...still fits!

If you told me that for every $1.00 spent being prepared, I'd save $15.00 in recovery costs, I'd ask you what kind of salesman you are. I would make an educated and informed judgement on you and your intentions. I'd leave our short encounter knowing that you stand to gain by keeping the fear alive.

No, your post didn't help. Perhaps it helps other more "dramatically driven" individuals, but it takes more weight than that to rock my boat.

As for being the first to ...well...let's just say that I am capable of looking after my own.
Too bad more people weren't as well. I guess that would be bad for business though. Eh?

[RupertBear]

It wasn't 6 weeks ago some of the "sky is falling" tree-huggers were yapping the snow pack is less than ever and doom and gloom is all that is in our futures. NOW I read the snow pack is greater than in years............go figure. Hypocritical tree-hugging zealots I guess are wired to continuously say black when its white and white when its black with no middle ground.

What has the total precipitation been in the last six weeks in the areas you are referring to? I know it was cold as heck down here in late March and early April, so maybe -- just maybe -- they were getting a lot of snow in those areas.