Lake Level Shoots Up

[Fancy]

So far so good with the lake but the debris this year has been dreadful. The creeks not running as fast and can only hope the lake level doesn't rise to the extreme like it did last year. Too many areas need a break.

[Glacier]

Looks like a kumquat of precipitation is coming later this week. That'll keep flood levels up.

[andrea-lake]

The chart I posted on the previous page shows where the lake was on May 13th. As an alternate to the official forecast in the Okanagan Basin Water Board webinar (referenced in that post), my unofficial forecast is that the lake should average 5 cm increase per day for 10 days after May 13th, putting it at Full Pool by May 23rd. After that the lake should rise for the next 12 days at a minimum of 3 cm average per day for a total of 36 cm peaking June 2nd at 342.84. Upside error margin is 15 cm above that (if rain is heavier, or they are constrained form letting water out faster at Penticton, or snow pack is larger than they thought, etc). From what I can understand, the official forecast is still too low, especially with more rain this week.

[gman313]

The chart I posted on the previous page shows where the lake was on May 13th. As an alternate to the official forecast in the Okanagan Basin Water Board webinar (referenced in that post), my unofficial forecast is that the lake should average 5 cm increase per day for 10 days after May 13th, putting it at Full Pool by May 23rd. After that the lake should rise for the next 12 days at a minimum of 3 cm average per day for a total of 36 cm peaking June 2nd at 342.84. Upside error margin is 15 cm above that (if rain is heavier, or they are constrained form letting water out faster at Penticton, or snow pack is larger than they thought, etc). From what I can understand, the official forecast is still too low, especially with more rain this week.

its not gonna flood - ur good

[andrea-lake]

CORD now predicts full pool by May 18th (see excerpt from Bulletin #24 published May 15 at 2:35 pm):

"Bladder dams, gabion barriers and sandbags will be installed at a number of locations along Okanagan Lake’s foreshore on a priority basis, making the most efficient use of work crews to get to as many areas as possible protected before the lake rises".

"In the past week Okanagan Lake rose 48.5 centimetres to 342.31 metres. This is 17 cm below full pool. However with a 30% chance of precipitation predicted for Wednesday night, it is likely that by Friday the lake will reach full pool at 342.48 metres and exceed this level by the weekend. Residents can monitor lake levels at wateroffice.ec.gc.ca".

That's 5 days earlier than I had forecast in my previous post. Check out how quickly the lake rose this past week at this link: https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/report/rea ... tn=08NM083

[DGMOK]

Yes and it sure does not help that they have reduced the outflow from 60 cubic meters to 37 cubic meters per second.
Almost cutting the outflow from the lake in half. This to reduce the flooding in Osoyoos. Of course the lake level is going to spike up.
I think we are in for some more flooding and destruction again this year.
Have no idea what the predicted lake level will be.
Read lake is going up 3 inches per day
Read they are predicting 20 centimeters over full pool
Penticton projection 343.00 meters by Saturday May 26 - that is 52 centimeters over full pool

[dominik]

Yes and it sure does not help that they have reduced the outflow from 60 cubic meters to 37 cubic meters per second.
Almost cutting the outflow from the lake in half. This to reduce the flooding in Osoyoos. Of course the lake level is going to spike up.
I think we are in for some more flooding and destruction again this year.
Have no idea what the predicted lake level will be.
Read lake is going up 3 inches per day
Read they are predicting 20 centimeters over full pool
Penticton projection 343.00 meters by Saturday May 26 - that is 52 centimeters over full pool

3cm per day not inches are currently the figures right now, this is with the release at the damn. Reason being likely that we still have the "ability" of letting water into the lake without putting areas in the south into danger. This likely also has to do with the flooding now across the border. Its simply a lot of water.

[andrea-lake]

Further to DGMOK's note re the Penticton forecast of 343 meters, below is a quote from the EOC Planning Chief of Penticton regarding the level of Okanagan Lake, followed by a link to the City of Penticton’s news release.

“The City has been working with the Province to assess current lake levels and the forecasted rise over the next few days. Projections indicate a planning threshold of 343.000m”, said EOC Operations Chief, Mitch Moroziuk. “Measurements taken this morning (May 15, 2018) indicated the lake had reached 342.282m and, by the City’s calculations, is expected to reach 343.000m by Saturday, May 26, 2018.
http://www.penticton.ca/assets/City~New ... levels.pdf

[Glacier]

If Lake Level keeps shooting up, does that mean that Lake Level is a heroin addict? Asking for a friend.

[Fancy]

Full pool tomorrow. 342.48 metres. Oh I'm tired of filling sandbags.

[Catsumi]

Fancy, that is a back breaking job. Rest often. Wish I was able (able!) to assist.

[Fancy]

Thanks for wanting to help but we have family that loves to work. Bonus is at my age it helps tone down the bat wings us older women get lol. Hoping for sunshine tomorrow because wet sand is not fun to deal with.

[Catsumi]

You just HAD to mention batwings??!!

[Fancy]

Lol. Saw on Global an 80 year old lady having to sandbag her place and she made sandwiches for everyone. I can't complain.