Electric Vehicles

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Jlabute
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by Jlabute »

spooker wrote: Sep 7th, 2021, 12:43 pm
The number of transit systems that are piloting programs as of 2020, typically for a 12-month period, shows that maybe the tech has matured to the right point where they can be considered reasonable alternatives ...

https://www.ridedart.com/electric-bus-pilot-program
https://www.sdmts.com/inside-mts-curren ... ot-program
https://www.cdta.org/news/electric-buses-roll-out
https://www.sfmta.com/projects/battery- ... us-program
https://www.ripta.com/projects/electric-bus/

And Vancouver has been running electric buses since 2019 and just ordered more ... https://globalnews.ca/news/7600410/batt ... vancouver/ ... any fires of note? or more news censorship?
Three of the links indicate Proterra drivetrain buses which have cracking issues.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/07/19/ ... -shambles/

https://www.thefourth-revolution.com/bu ... ladelphia/

https://www.dailybulletin.com/2021/07/2 ... its-fleet/

Vancouver buses are from a Canadian company called GreenPower Motors Inc who get most of their sales from California and is subsidized about 74%. Last years revenue was down 40%. They could very well be re-branded Chinese buses since GreenPower is actually an importer/exporter.

https://whitediamondresearch.com/wp-con ... Report.pdf

Have any Chinese buses caught fire? Hard to get such information.


As said, it is an immature technology, whether you've heard anything or not. It'll be a matter of time. Even if you hear nothing, you've probably paid too much for it.
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OKkayak
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by OKkayak »

Jlabute wrote: Sep 7th, 2021, 1:55 pm
Vancouver buses are from a Canadian company called GreenPower Motors Inc who get most of their sales from California and is subsidized about 74%. Last years revenue was down 40%. They could very well be re-branded Chinese buses since GreenPower is actually an importer/exporter.
Translink's BEVs are from Nova Bus in Quebec and their trolley buses are from New Flyer in Manitoba.

Vancouver's initial BEV trials consisted of both Nova and New Flyer buses with the contract going to Nova now that the trial is completed. Route 100 will be completely BEV next year and the new Marpole Depot will be BEV dedicated, currently, only the Hamilton Depot (which is where the route 100 is assigned) has chargers installed and the Vancouver Depot is the only trolley depot and will be exclusively trolley once the new Marpole depot opens and the current trolley fleet is set to be replaced by new models in the next few years, also the older diesels are currently being replaced with various HEV models.
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by I Think »

Tesla reports that "from 2012 to 2020 there was about one Tesla vehicle fire per 205 million miles traveled—versus one per 19 million miles traveled for all types, citing data from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and U.S. Department of Transportation."
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Re: Electric Vehicles

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I Think wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 8:22 am Tesla reports that "from 2012 to 2020 there was about one Tesla vehicle fire per 205 million miles traveled—versus one per 19 million miles traveled for all types, citing data from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and U.S. Department of Transportation."
This seems to me to compare the number for Tesla alone to the number for all the vehicles on the road. That comparison would be illogical in many applications.
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spooker
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by spooker »

rustled wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 9:57 am
I Think wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 8:22 am Tesla reports that "from 2012 to 2020 there was about one Tesla vehicle fire per 205 million miles traveled—versus one per 19 million miles traveled for all types, citing data from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and U.S. Department of Transportation."
This seems to me to compare the number for Tesla alone to the number for all the vehicles on the road. That comparison would be illogical in many applications.
Why would it be illogical? Would you say the same when they compare the fact that Telsa on autopilot has had had fewer incidents per million miles than other cars with some safety measures and even fewer vs cars with purely human drivers only?

You're not comparing the number of cars on the road vs the number of Teslas ... you're comparing them based on the miles travelled ... it's the same comparison when you look at cost of ownership, per a certain distance traveled how much maintenance is required in a regular ICE vehicle vs a Tesla, which is lower for the Tesla as there are fewer moving parts and less consumables (fluids) ...

One might think that ICE vehicles are not prone to fires since they're based on a more mature technology ... but that doesn't seem to be the case when looking at it ...
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rustled
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by rustled »

spooker wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 11:02 am
rustled wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 9:57 am

This seems to me to compare the number for Tesla alone to the number for all the vehicles on the road. That comparison would be illogical in many applications.
Why would it be illogical?
I said it would be illogical in many applications. Here's some analysis:

https://insideevs.com/news/501729/numbe ... ires-2020/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrot ... 0c62365af8
Last edited by rustled on Sep 21st, 2021, 11:28 am, edited 2 times in total.
Ideology...gives evil-doing its long-sought justification and gives the evildoer the necessary steadfastness and determination...[it] is the social theory which helps to make his actions seem good instead of bad in his own and others' eyes...
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by Jlabute »

GM is warning people not to park their Bolts beside anything they care about, or at least not within 50 feet of other vehicles. This pretty much nullifies the idea of using one in an urban setting.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/16/ ... are-about/


Another article tells us that charging stations can be automatically shut-off to avoid blackouts in the UK. Continually chipping away at the convenience of ownership, states and countries that depend more and more on renewable energy sources are finding themselves restricting access to EV charging. It'll be A LOT longer than 20 years before everyone has one. There is a lot of mileage left in gas.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/13/ ... blackouts/
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spooker
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by spooker »

rustled wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 11:22 am
spooker wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 11:02 am

Why would it be illogical?
I said it would be illogical in many applications.
Can you expand? ... I Think posted a quote from an article that was easily sourced, it made a specific claim ... but you made a vague response about how it would be illogical "in many applications" ... how does that apply to the post you originally quoted?

https://insideevs.com/news/501729/numbe ... ires-2020/
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spooker
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by spooker »

Jlabute wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 11:25 am GM is warning people not to park their Bolts beside anything they care about, or at least not within 50 feet of other vehicles. This pretty much nullifies the idea of using one in an urban setting.
They started those warnings back in July ...
Jlabute wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 11:25 am Another article tells us that charging stations can be automatically shut-off to avoid blackouts in the UK. Continually chipping away at the convenience of ownership, states and countries that depend more and more on renewable energy sources are finding themselves restricting access to EV charging. It'll be A LOT longer than 20 years before everyone has one. There is a lot of mileage left in gas.
As long as the cheap gas keeps flowing ... no one is saying that ICE is going away tomorrow ... just that if we continue to wait for another day to start finding new solutions we're going to be screwed ... grid size battery systems help smooth out the renewable ups-and-downs ...
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rustled
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by rustled »

spooker wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 11:30 am
rustled wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 11:22 am

I said it would be illogical in many applications.
Can you expand?
If your interest is to understand why it would be illogical in many applications, I have already provided some analysis from better informed sources for you to peruse - including the piece you've linked to.
Ideology...gives evil-doing its long-sought justification and gives the evildoer the necessary steadfastness and determination...[it] is the social theory which helps to make his actions seem good instead of bad in his own and others' eyes...
-Solzhenitsyn
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Jlabute
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by Jlabute »

spooker wrote: Sep 21st, 2021, 11:41 am
They started those warnings back in July ...

As long as the cheap gas keeps flowing ... no one is saying that ICE is going away tomorrow ... just that if we continue to wait for another day to start finding new solutions we're going to be screwed ... grid size battery systems help smooth out the renewable ups-and-downs ...
GM has pretty much been re-iterating their warnings. This is from September. There have been 12 confirmed fires.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/busin ... 355134002/

Even grid sized battery storage has issues. These are all new products with unsolved problems. As far as 'being screwed' observational evidence and science does not suggest what 'screwed' might even mean. 'Screwed' is mostly a product of bad modeling and science of which Canadian models are the worst. Grid size mega packs actually command a micro portion of energy needed to keep a grid up for any significant time. Like CO2 capture technologies, one needs to spend a horrendous amount of money on something which is ultimately inadequate. So I personally don't believe the future should be hundreds of millions of mega pack batteries, and hundreds of millions of chargers, and hundreds of millions of power inverters, solar panels, and wind turbines, and micromanaging every coulomb. Too wasteful and complex. Certainly we will have ICE and fuel stations far past the 2030/40/50 bans. Thankfully there is time to find better energy solutions rather than knee-jerking our way in to a wasteful future.

Musk is already facing a shortage of battery cells so nothing is going to come quick even if paid for.
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by I Think »

GM says it has the problem solved and is building battery packs apace to get them into vehicles asap.
Tesla is building batteries and is building factories to build more batteries.
And Tesla is a good source of comparatives since they monitor each tesla's every move and use ai to improve the cars as new learnings become available.
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by nepal »

Some straight talk on EVs
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by JagXKR »

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesl ... -elon-musk
Based on several posts on Twitter, it seems that Tesla owners around the world are reporting not being able to connect their phone to their vehicle or, in some cases, not even being able to start the car.
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spooker
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Re: Electric Vehicles

Post by spooker »

Up in Alaska they run an EV school bus in -40F temps ...

https://electrek.co/2021/11/19/heres-ho ... ow-as-40f/
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