Alberta

[crookedmember]

Wow, the wheels are falling off Jason Kenney's decrepit Used Car Party.

This would translate into 60 seats for the NDP, and 27 for the Used Cars.

UCP would be wiped out in urban areas. (Sound familiar?)

[hobbyguy]

As hobbyguy mentioned above, Kenney is a skilled politician, and I mean "politician" in the worst sense of the word. Notely and the NDP did an excellent job given the hand they were dealt, with the double tap of the oil price crash and the Ft. Mac wildfires. I highly doubt a business-friendly conservative government could have achieved anywhere close to the level of recovery that the NDP did. In stark comparison, Kenney's handouts to oil producers achieved nothing, and the oil patch workforce has been shrinking steadily even as oil prices and producer profits soar. His gross mismanagement of the pandemic, seemingly taking page after page from the Trump play-book of pandering to the far right base, has been exposed by record high infection rates, and a medical system that he gutted upon entering office has been strained to the max. I really can't see how he will make it through the next election, if he even gets that far. The chances that he can run the same scam on voters that he did in 2019 are somewhere between really slim and really, really slim.

If you look at Paul Hinman's background you will see that his political and family roots go back to the Ernest Manning Socreds (Ernest Manning used to host a radio program "Back to the Bible" while sitting as Alberta premier) and politically that means "Bible Bill" Aberhart. The political attitudes within that are "unique" and have a lot of bias in them, including a very strong dislike of Catholics and therefore Quebec. The rejection of Raoul Couette as the federal Socred leader is an informative incident in the evolution of a very "different" Alberta Socred group.

That strain of politics has always contained an element of reactionary rebellion against collective action/responsibility, modernity and change. "Back to the Bible" is symptomatic of a fixed outlook that rejects a priori reasoning and rationality in government. In fact it has elements of anti-government ethos sprinkled liberally throughout.

It is informative to consider that while the BC Socreds and WAC Bennett were forming BC Hydro, building dams and electrifying all corners of the province, the Ernest Manning and the Alberta Socreds rejected government involvement and left it up to farmers to form co-ops to build electrical grids to feed their farms. It is also informative to consider that up until 1959 Alberta used STV to elect their MLAs and it was the Alberta Socreds who killed STV (it is said because too many opposition MLAs were being elected). That gives some flavor to the differences.

Hinman's grandfather was a cabinet minister in the Ernest Manning Socred government. We all inherit some of our worldview from our parents and grandparents. That thread of political worldview is in the background of many Alberta families.

That worldview, bolstered as it always has been by the Western Standard, has always meant that Alberta has an outlook that is far less cosmopolitan and secular society oriented than other parts of the country and it transfers through the region where lifestyles have commonalities. It has elements that say "do not look to government to do things" and are suspicious of any government. The Hillier family has those elements in their background, Randy Hillier having been found to have harassed government officials and being so far right that Doug Ford got fed up with him and booted him from caucus.

The Hilliers and Hinman's would be happiest in Idaho County, Idaho where there are no zoning rules, no building codes etc., and government is almost invisible.

The group that hold that political worldview are relatively immutable. What is changing is the political landscape that surrounds them. Population growth in all of Canada is not organic, in fact our population is shrinking from an organic viewpoint. Alberta is no different, with Edmonton and Calgary attracting a lot of immigrants both from other countries and other provinces. Alberta is becoming more more urban and cosmopolitan. That creates a tension in Alberta politics that is hard to read.

Jason Kenney is a very adept politician but useless at anything else (I would be surprised if he knew which end of a hammer to hold). Yes, the pandemic mismanagement has been incredibly bad. However, that's from a viewpoint of those in other provinces. The old "Western Standard" viewpoint may not see it that way, and may not punish Kenney and UCP at all for their mismanagement - except in parts of Edmonton and Calgary.

I suppose the key point is that for a BC boy like me, trying to understand Alberta politics is like trying to learn Russian, the alphabet, inflections, phrasing are all different. My bet is that Jason Kenney is capable of reading that foreign language world of Alberta politics much, much better than it appears.

[hobbyguy]

Wow, the wheels are falling off Jason Kenney's decrepit Used Car Party.

This would translate into 60 seats for the NDP, and 27 for the Used Cars.

UCP would be wiped out in urban areas. (Sound familiar?)

If you look at the 2019 election that brought Kenney to power, the UCP vote was far, far more efficient than the NDP vote. That efficiency gap means the UCP can easily recover in time for the next election. My guess is that UCP voters "come home" and only about 8 seats flip (mostly Edmonton/Calgary seats). That would make it 50+/- seats for the UCP, and 35+/- for the NDP. The UCP can easily give up 5-10% of their vote share in most districts and still win handily.

The real threat to the UCP is not from Notley and the NDP, it is from the Wildrose et al on the right.

[The Green Barbarian]

Wow, the wheels are falling off Jason Kenney's decrepit Used Car Party.

LOL - more of this nonsensical stupidity. Quoting polls before the federal election blew up in the far Left's faces, and made them look like massive giant fools. And rightly so. And yet these same fools learned nothing. Trudeau blew a huge lead with a disgusting and stupid campaign, and there's no reason to believe that the dumb dumb Nutley will do the same. Kenney should step down, but even he doesn't, it would take a lot and I mean a lot of incredibly stupid people to vote the NDP back in.

[Randall T]

Wow, the wheels are falling off Jason Kenney's decrepit Used Car Party.

LOL - more of this nonsensical stupidity. Quoting polls before the federal election blew up in the far Left's faces, and made them look like massive giant fools. And rightly so. And yet these same fools learned nothing. Trudeau blew a huge lead with a disgusting and stupid campaign, and there's no reason to believe that the dumb dumb Nutley will do the same. Kenney should step down, but even he doesn't, it would take a lot and I mean a lot of incredibly stupid people to vote the NDP back in.

Wouldn't be the first time. If Kenney doesn't step down or is taken down, Notley will have an easy win. If Kenney is replaced with someone with even half a brain, then the UCP will be back in. I lived long enough in Alberta and know enough people there who will not cast a vote for Kenney, even though they will have to hold their noses and and vote NDP. He is not well liked or respected. I understand their frustrations, and these people have been blue all their lives.

[nucksRnum1]

Well, would you look at that......

[The Green Barbarian]

If Kenney doesn't step down or is taken down, Notley will have an easy win.

I don't know about that. The memories of what a disaster Nutley was the last time she had power is still pretty fresh.

[Randall T]

If Kenney doesn't step down or is taken down, Notley will have an easy win.

I don't know about that. The memories of what a disaster Nutley was the last time she had power is still pretty fresh.

Could be true, but politics always seems to focus on the moment. The fact is there isn't much to choose from. The Conservatives lost a lot of support with Kenney. Glad I haven't lived there since the good years. I always vote but this time around I really don't know what I'd do if I was there. I'd probably call Stephen and Laureen and see what they think

[nucksRnum1]

Notley was behind the 8 ball the whole time. Having to triage 40 years of conservative irresponsibility and malfeasance. And now with Kenny there will be another conservative mess for Notley to fix.

[nucksRnum1]

Quiz: Do you live in a failed state or just Alberta?


https://thebeaverton.com/2021/10/quiz-d ... BUDw2Dwauc

[crookedmember]

Alberta and Norway have similar populations and oil production levels.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund is worth about $1.3 trillion.

Alberta's heritage fund is worth a piddling $13 billion.

Alberta keeps 100% of it's resource royalties and revenues; not a penny goes to Ottawa.

It's not hard to see how 40-odd years of conservative misrule squandered Alberta's resource wealth.

Someone got rich from all that oil. But it sure wasn't Albertans.

[hobbyguy]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton ... -1.6238017

"The former Wildrose Party leader is itching for a rematch with embattled Kenney"

Brian Jean is back.

And the former leader of the Wildrose Party has a chip on his shoulder the size of a Rocky Mountain Douglas fir.

Jean's announcement this week that he'll run in the yet-to-be-called byelection in his home riding of Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche wasn't exactly a shock."

SNIP

"You spoke and I listened," said Jean in his Facebook I-have-returned announcement Wednesday evening. "Something must be done or Rachel Notley will win the next election with an overwhelming majority."

The target here, though, is not Notley but Kenney.

Jean is using the spectre of an NDP government returning to power as a club to batter away at Kenney."

SNIP

This is Game of Thrones meets The Revenant.

It is not only a battle for power, but the return of a man left for dead."

SNIP

"You have to wonder if Kenney wouldn't simply prefer having another NDP MLA across the floor of the legislative assembly floor staring daggers at him, rather than having Brian Jean inside the UCP tent sharpening his knives."

[hobbyguy]

And the gloves are off: https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/kenney-sugg ... -1.5654146

"Kenney suggests Jean will be allowed to run, questions his 'commitment and reliability'"

Kenney looks happier with someone to attack.

[nucksRnum1]

Jason and Alberta capitulated on daycare with strings attached.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2ZEmwAM8G0&t=302s[/youtube]

[The Green Barbarian]

Alberta and Norway have similar populations and oil production levels.

Except that one is a province of a large country with a small population, while the other is an actual country, very small with a very small population.

Also - Norway gets to sell their oil for top dollar because pipelines, while Alberta has only one customer, the US, because evil and stupid boneheads won't let them build pipelines to tidewater, cuz...well...stupid.

So comparing the two is extremely silly and accomplishes nothing.

Alberta keeps 100% of it's resource royalties and revenues; not a penny goes to Ottawa.

Hmmm...interesting...so who is paying these royalties to the Federal government, the fairy godmother?

It's not hard to see how 40-odd years of conservative misrule squandered Alberta's resource wealth.

It's not hard to see, because it doesn't exist. This entire narrative is false, and just in general extremely stupid.

Someone got rich from all that oil.

All Canadians benefited. Which is why we can offer free health care and massive social spending.

But it sure wasn't Albertans.

Albertans have done extremely well. And rightly so. Having no provincial sales tax must be awesome. It's too bad other provinces can't figure out how to save their people a giant slice of their paycheques every time they buy something.

That being said, I think it is time for Alberta to have a provincial sales tax to smooth out their revenues. But that has nothing to do with all the oil wealth they bring in.

All Albertans should be happy they don't live in a high tax, business-killing environment like the dummies have in Norway. Only a massive fool would wish Norway's stupidity on any other nation.