Federal Election Poll

[Urbane]

There's still a month to go before the vote but here's one analysis of how things look at this point:

Special to the National Post Apr 1, 2011 – 11:21 AM ET

Bryan Breuget is the Vancouver-based poll analyst behind Tooclosetocall.ca. He will be contributing electoral forecasts and seat projections to nationalpost.com throughout Federal Election 2011.

By Bryan Breguet

It has been less than a week since the 41st federal election was triggered and it’s too early to tell if the early days had any impact. What is clear though is that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives entered this campaign with a virtual majority.

Opinion polls conducted days before the election was triggered (or right after) consistently show the same thing: a big lead for the Conservatives. Moreover, they also show strong numbers for the Tories in two regions where the potential gains are big: Atlantic Canada and of course, Ontario. Translated into seats, these polls give a (narrow) majority to Harper.

Stephen Harper and his advisors know that. This is why they decided to run such a risk-less campaign so far, with no big policy announcement (mostly items from the defeated 2011 budget). Here is how Harper and his party can get a majority: make some gains in Atlantic Canada, especially in Newfoundland and Labrador, where the ABC (Anything But Conservatives) effect seems gone; keep the couple of seats they currently hold in Quebec; increase the lead over the Liberals in Ontario, where they could get as many as 60 seats, a nine-seat gain over 2008 (most of them in the GTA); finally, in the Prairies, Alberta and B.C., they can simply keep what they have. Of course, sweeping Alberta would be nice but it’s more like a bonus.

The current projections place the Conservatives at 155 seats; 140 of them safe (i.e: won by a margin of more than 5-points), and 33 close (of which they are projected to win 15). A good riding-targeting and an efficient machine to get the vote out in those ridings would help them in securing a bigger majority.

For the Liberals and Michael Ignatieff, the hill is very steep. The current seat projections put them at 66 seats. Even by winning all the close races they are in, they would only get 82 seats, a marginal increase over Stéphane Dion’s results. The latest Nanos poll showed some improvement for this party, but the best they can achieve currently is to prevent a Tory majority. On top of that, the numbers in Ontario are usually bad and the Atlantic is not the safe source of Liberal seats it used to be. The worst case scenario could even see the Liberals falling to third place, behind the Bloc! But the (so far) good campaign of Ignatieff will likely prevent that from happening.

The NDP is facing a very different situation. Polls are good and most of their seats were won by a decent majority in 2008. The downside of this efficiency in votes is that gains are more difficult to grab. In the best-case scenario, the party of Jack Layton can get one more seat in Quebec and a couple in British Columbia. Crossing the 40-seat threshold would already be an achievement for them.

The Green party has only one goal: getting an elected MP, if possible its leader Elizabeth May running in Saanich-Gulf-Island. The current projections (taking into account the usual boost May gets as the leader) show a possible close race between the Liberals, the Green and the current Conservatives incumbent. On election day, by the time we get there, we’ll likely know the color of the government, but this riding will keep some suspense going. The Green party also has some hopes in two ridings in Ontario.

Finally, the Bloc Québécois doesn’t have much to worry about. A breakthrough from the Tories (as observed at the beginning of the last campaign) seems unlikely. Even with some bad luck, Duceppe will count on at least 44 MPs in the next House of Commons.

At the end, the difference with the other recent federal elections is that one party starts with a virtual majority. A lot of things can happen between now and May 2, but if Harper doesn’t get his so-desired majority, it will be because he lost it during the campaign. Especially since the latest poll from Harris-Decima shows that Canadians are more ready than ever for a majority government.

• Bryan Breguet is currently completing a ph.d in economics at the University of British Columbia. He previously studied economics and political sciences at the University of Montreal. His research fields are labour economics and econometrics methods (which are used to estimate his projection model). Details and riding-by-riding projections are available on his website at http://www.tooclosetocall.ca

[Urbane]

With just over four weeks to go here is the latest poll:

CTV.ca News Staff
Date: Sat. Apr. 2 2011 8:30 AM ET
The latest CTV News/Globe/Nanos poll shows Conservatives ahead by 11 points, one week into the campaign for a May 2 federal election.

Since the beginning of the campaign last Saturday, Liberals have seen a 4-point increase in support, and that's come mainly at the expense of the NDP's support, which has dropped 4 points.

The latest numbers from Nanos Research, April 1 numbers, with March 15 numbers in brackets:

Conservatives: 41.3 per cent (Mar. 15: 38.6 per cent)
Liberals: 30.3 per cent (27.6)
NDP 16.0 per cent (19.9)
Bloc Quebecois: 8.5 per cent (10.1)
Green Party: 3.7 per cent (3.8)

Support for the Stephen Harper's Conservatives remain strong across the country, and this week's rise was largely driven by a positive marginal increase in support among Quebecers.

In mid-March, Conservative support in Quebec was at 19.6 per cent. As of Friday April 1, it trended upward to 26.7 per cent.

Policy was still cited by one of two Canadians (52.0 per cent) as the most important vote driver followed by party leader at 22.2 per cent.

[Urbane]

Conrad Black's take on how the election might turn out (from a column he wrote on March 26th):

I am afraid the reason for the election is that the Liberals have given up on their leader; that they have not adjusted to the fact that they are no longer the natural party of government, and won’t have a tribal vote from Quebec any more, with a pendant Ontario majority buying the Liberal mythos of indispensable conservators of federalism; and that they think if they can just change leaders again, they will win, because that was their habit for so long.

Since the government is in the grey zone between being popular and unpopular, and Ignatieff has performed well below expectations, he could suddenly raise his game and be a refreshing surprise. But as the Liberals trail the Conservatives by 66 MP’s (and even if they made important gains, they would be at the expense of all the parties), a Liberal victory is a long shot, even if a Liberal-NDP majority is not so far-fetched.

Meanwhile, if Ignatieff doesn’t get any traction, it would not be difficult to imagine the Conservatives gaining the eleven MP’s necessary for a majority, especially as there are now three vacancies and two independents, including the mistreated Conservative castaway Helena Guergis.

A further word about the Prime Minister: He is the first person who has had to found his own party to win a federal election since John A. Macdonald, has won two of the three election campaigns he has conducted, has made very few mistakes, has governed with crisp efficiency and common sense in somewhat perturbed times, and is respected by foreign leaders. He has never embarrassed himself or the country. This is not the CV of someone about to be given the order of the boot. He didn’t ask for this election; the opposition did, and not for very creditable reasons. Harper should win and deserves to win, unless he blows up in the clutch, and nothing in his career incites much expectation of that. But if Ignatieff fulfills some of his long-interred and almost forgotten potential, it might at least be an enlightening election between capable leaders who could strengthen the two-party system and keep their jobs. That is probably the best we can hope for.

National Post

[Urbane]

TV.ca News Staff
Date: Mon. Apr. 4 2011 8:09 AM ET
The Conservatives' lead over the Liberals has stretched to 14 points, mostly driven by growth in the West, according to a new poll conducted on behalf of CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

The new poll released Monday morning by Nanos Research shows the Conservatives inching closer to majority government territory, with 42.3 per cent support.

The Liberals were in second with 28.4 per cent support, followed by the NDP, the Bloc Quebecois and the Green Party.

Following are the latest numbers from Nanos polling as of April 4, with March 15 numbers in brackets:

Conservatives: 42.3 per cent (Mar. 15: 38.6 per cent)
Liberals: 28.4 per cent (27.6)
NDP 16.4 per cent (19.9)
Bloc Quebecois: 8 per cent (10.1)
Green Party: 3.8 per cent (3.8)
The poll comes nine days into the campaign for a May 2 federal election.

Much of the Conservatives' growth is in the west, where support in British Columbia has gone up from 37.5 per cent in mid-March, to 49.7 per cent as of April 3.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are polling at a strong 55.7 per cent, compared to 55.5 per cent in mid-March.

The Liberals, by comparison, have seen growth in Ontario, with support rising from 30.9 per cent in mid-March, to the current 37.5 per cent. The Liberals have remained relatively stable in B.C. and the Prairies, and have lost ground in Quebec.

The latest round of polling comes one day after Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff unveiled his full campaign platform -- one that would shift the country away from military spending and a focused economic recovery, to social spending, breaks for families and help with education costs.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party, has stressed that the economic recovery is still fragile and the focus should remain on reducing the deficit and maintaining stability.

Pollster Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos Research, said any potential impact from the new Liberal platform won't be fully realized until mid week.

The poll also looked at the importance of various issues to respondents.

In total 47.3 per cent of those polled said party policies were the top issue influencing their vote.

In total 22.5 per cent said the party leader was the most important issue, while 18 per cent said their local candidate was of utmost importance to them -- an increase from 12.3 per cent in mid-March.

"What we've seen in the last three to four nights especially is an increase in the number of Canadians who say their local candidate is important," Nanos told CTV's Canada AM.

"Now as Canadians start to see the different local choices they're starting to become an important factor."

Nanos also said the economy and jobs are also becoming increasingly important to voters. At the beginning of the campaign health care was the leading issue for voters by 11 percentage points.

As of Sunday night's polling, the economy and health care are in a statistical tie as the top issue for voters, he said.

[Urbane]

Here's the latest poll - this one an Ekos poll and analysis from the CBC News site:

A Conservative majority is "looking more elusive" and the party appears headed toward a diminished minority, according to a new EKOS poll.

A new survey by the polling company indicates the Conservatives have the support of 37 per cent of voters, with the Liberals trailing at 27.8 per cent. The poll suggests the New Democratic Party has 16.1 per cent support, the Green Party 9.3 per cent and the Bloc Québécois 6.9 per cent.

Voters were asked to indicate which party they would vote for if an election were held the day after they were surveyed.

"We need to look no further than the burgeoning concern with 'ethics and accountability' to understand why this issue is becoming a central focus and why the Conservatives appear to be backing up from majority to what would now be a diminished minority, which, according to the Conservative Party's own election gambit, would produce a change of government," the EKOS analysis said.

"In terms of the prospects of a majority it seems that is looking more elusive. Not only has the race narrowed somewhat but the Conservatives have fallen back badly on second choice, which the NDP lead on and the Liberals have risen as a second choice."

The party standings in the survey are not markedly different from a survey held just before the election call in March.

The Conservatives gained just under two percentage points, while the Liberal Party dropped less than one percentage point. The NDP gained about two percentage points and the Green Party dropped just over one percentage point. The Bloc Québécois showed the greatest shift, dropping about three percentage points.

The survey also indicates the Conservatives have a clear advantage when it comes to voter commitment.

"Their supporters are by far the most loyal from the last election, the most likely to have no other choice, the most like to be certain to vote, the least likely to change their mind and the most enthusiastic about their choice," the EKOS analysis said.

"It may, however, be that what makes the Conservatives so strong also makes them so limited in their ability to grow. … The final result is extremely uncertain at this point but the majority outcome is looking increasingly unlikely."

The survey of 1,171 Canadians was conducted between April 4 and 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

[Tacklewasher]

Why would the NANOS and Ekos polls be so far apart?

From The Globe & Mail

Tories @ 39.6% (~2.5 above Ekos)
Libs @ 30.4% (~2.5 above)
NPD @ 17.2% (1 above)
Bloc @ 8.3% (1.5 above)
Greens @ 3.2% (6 below)
Remainder 1.3% (2.9% remainder)

One of them seems skewed on the Greens.

[Urbane]

These results just came out this evening and not a lot has changed:

CTV.ca News Staff
Date: Thursday Apr. 7, 2011 10:09 PM ET
A series of potentially damaging political gaffes have had a minimal effect on the opinions of Canadian voters, as Stephen Harper maintains a strong lead over his political rivals, a new poll suggests.

However, the gap between Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and his NDP counterpart Jack Layton appears to have narrowed, according to a Nanos Research Poll conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail.

In recent days, Harper has been forced to play damage control on reports that a young woman was kicked out of a campaign event after Conservative staffers found a photo of her on Facebook with Michael Ignatieff.

Ignatieff, meanwhile, had to ditch a Quebec candidate who made a disparaging comment about aboriginals.

Still, while both issues made headlines across the country in the mainstream media, voters don't seem to be immediately reacting. In fact, the Nanos poll suggested that such gaffes are "white noise" in terms of their impact.

After nearly two weeks of campaigning, the polls currently suggest the makeup of the House of Commons after the next election may be very similar to what it was before the writ was dropped.

The critical issue going forward will be next week's leaders' debates, which may be the best chance for any of the parties to have a breakthrough with voters.

In terms of national support, the Conservatives remain within striking distance of a majority government, according to April 6 poll numbers.

Conservatives: 39.6 per cent
Liberal: 30.4 per cent
NDP: 17.2 per cent
Bloc Quebecois: 8.3 per cent
Green Party: 3.2 per cent
Those results are nearly identical to poling numbers earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, Layton has repeatedly scored higher than Ignatieff on the Nanos Leadership Index Score, but it appears that the Liberal leader is narrowing that lead. The leadership index combines voter opinions of issues of trust, competence and each leader's vision for Canada.

On April 6, the total leadership scores for the major party leaders were:

Stephen Harper: 106.2
Jack Layton: 48.4
Michael Ignatieff: 45.4
Gilles Duceppe: 16.4
Harper's lead is partially due to strong numbers in the competence category, which could reflect his image as a steady hand in economic terms.

Meanwhile, the key issues in this election remain health care and the economy. When asked to name, unprompted, what their most important national issue of concern was, almost 25 per cent said health care.

The economy and concern over jobs is also very important for voters (percentage-point change from the April 5 survey is in brackets):

Health care: 24.8 per cent (+2.2)
Jobs / Economy: 23.3 per cent (-0.1)
Education: 8.2 per cent (-0.8)
High taxes: 5.8 per cent (+0.2)
Environment: 5.5 per cent (-0.5)
Unsure: 12.1 per cent (+0.1)

[angel980]

we will be right where we are now when this election is over

[grammafreddy]

we will be right where we are now when this election is over

Hopefully not. If so, we have a problem.

The Tories will table the same budget and the coalition will defeat it again, then the GG will have to step in and ask the LIberals if they can form a government and then the smelly brown stuff hits the rotating blades.

The result of that is that my signature becomes true ...

[twobits]

we will be right where we are now when this election is over

Hopefully not. If so, we have a problem.

The Tories will table the same budget and the coalition will defeat it again, then the GG will have to step in and ask the LIberals if they can form a government and then the smelly brown stuff hits the rotating blades.

The result of that is that my signature becomes true ...

GF-Unfortunately the average citizen does not understand how Parliment works and that what you bring up is a very real possibility. We will look like Isreal's Parliment and just as effective. Then again, maybe the electorate needs to be *bleep* slapped with that senario to jolt them back to reality. Should Harper come right out and say he will table the identical budget and lay out the opposition choices? Voting for a budget that was unpalitable enough to force an election would be hypocritical and voting it down would force a coalition govt that includes a separist party. Or another election lol.

[Urbane]

Since the campaign started anyone change your mind as to who's going to win? Anyone think the Conservatives won't win the most seats? I'm still thinking a Conservative minority (for a very short time) followed by a Liberal minority supported by the Bloc and the NDP. All of the seat projections that are out there show the Conservatives short of a majority with an average on those projections of 148 seats (155 needed for a majority).

[NAB]

Nope. Haven't changed my mind Urbane, although I am tilting more now toward a Conservative Majority rather than just a Conservative Minority. The Conservatives haven't gone off track enough to either gain or lose ground, but Ignatieff looks to me like his genie has left the bottle forever. I think even the NDP have peaked and are on a downward slide now.

Still, in Canadian politics surprises can happen at the last minute.

Nab

[Al Czervic]

Nope. Haven't changed my mind Urbane, although I am tilting more now toward a Conservative Majority rather than just a Conservative Minority. The Conservatives haven't gone off track enough to either gain or lose ground, but Ignatieff looks to me like his genie has left the bottle forever. I think even the NDP have peaked and are on a downward slide now.

Still, in Canadian politics surprises can happen at the last minute.

Nab

From my perspective Harper has run a fairly lacklustre campaign so far, although I am mindful the big push will be starting for the final ten day so certainly more can happen. I agree with you that Layton is in the most trouble but I am not convinced the NDP is on a downward trend. I remain of the opinion that Layton will benefit from some of the disenfranchised Liberals who hate Harper but cannot stand to vote for Iggy. Time will tell of course….the next 10 days will be the big push from all parties.

[Urbane]

From my perspective Harper has run a fairly lacklustre campaign so far, although I am mindful the big push will be starting for the final ten day so certainly more can happen. I agree with you that Layton is in the most trouble but I am not convinced the NDP is on a downward trend. I remain of the opinion that Layton will benefit from some of the disenfranchised Liberals who hate Harper but cannot stand to vote for Iggy. Time will tell of course….the next 10 days will be the big push from all parties.

If it's true what was mentioned on The National this evening, that the CROP poll tomorrow will show that the NDP is in first place in Quebec ahead of the Bloc, then Layton might not be in trouble at all. In fact, if his numbers are that good in Quebec he may surprise the pundits and win many seats. He may yet challenge Ignatieff for Leader of the Opposition. Anyway, I think this CROP poll will be a big item of discussion tomorrow and for days to come.

[John500]

Last Monday a poll was published. Tuesday a poll was published, Wednesaday a poll was published and so it goes on and on...Polls during election campaigns need to be outlawed!