Federal Election Poll

[Al Czervic]

Urbane,

I don’t think Layton will pull in more seats then Iggy it is more of a case that I believe he will add some seats at Iggy’s expense, and possibly the Bloc’s as well. I also believe that Harper will add some seats but I still see a razor thin minority government. I will say (and apologies to you Steven Lloyd for saying this) I hope that Ujjal is the first to go ! (I realize being on the ‘West Coast he will not be the first but I think you know what I mean) I would also thoroughly enjoy seeing bobblehead Liberal MP Joyce Murray getting canned by voters as well…..

[steven lloyd]

I will say (and apologies to you Steven Lloyd for saying this) I hope that Ujjal is the first to go

I'll get over it

[Urbane]

Today's Nanos three-day rolling poll results:

Conservatives 39.2%
Liberals 25.6%
NDP 23.6%

I heard Nic Nanos on CTV NewsNet and he said along with the NDP "surge" another big thing happening now is the Liberals heading south in Ontario. If you look at the graph it's quite stark but here are the latest Ontario numbers:

Conservatives 47.8%
Liberals 29.3%
NDP 16.9%

Not only has the gap in Ontario widened significantly between the Conservatives and the Liberals the NDP isn't catching fire in Ontario. Many there remember Bob Rae's time at the helm and even though he's a Liberal now he was, after all, and NDP premier and many Ontarians shudder at the thought of the NDP being anywhere near power at the national level. Anyway, things might possibly be moving toward a Conservative majority. We'll see.

[Urbane]

Pick your poll. If you believe these results, including a 39-25% lead for the NDP over the Bloc in Quebec, and the conclusion of the pollster, Jack Layton will be our next prime minister:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2 ... -of-canada’s-political-landscape-april-25-2011/

[NAB]

Today's Nanos three-day rolling poll results:

Conservatives 39.2%
Liberals 25.6%
NDP 23.6%

I heard Nic Nanos on CTV NewsNet and he said along with the NDP "surge" another big thing happening now is the Liberals heading south in Ontario. If you look at the graph it's quite stark but here are the latest Ontario numbers:

Conservatives 47.8%
Liberals 29.3%
NDP 16.9%

Not only has the gap in Ontario widened significantly between the Conservatives and the Liberals the NDP isn't catching fire in Ontario. Many there remember Bob Rae's time at the helm and even though he's a Liberal now he was, after all, and NDP premier and many Ontarians shudder at the thought of the NDP being anywhere near power at the national level. Anyway, things might possibly be moving toward a Conservative majority. We'll see.

Ya Urbane. And TV is reporting that as a result a couple of interesting things are happening on the ground. Ignatieff is pulling back to trying to protect core Liberal ridings in the Greater Toronto area, potentially signifying he has given up thinking he can gain seats. Secondly, Layton and the NDP are apparently trying to make further gains in BC by hammering at close ridings in the Lower mainland.

The thing is, In BC the NDP are primarily after Conservative ridings, while in Ontario and Quebec the Liberals are trying to stall the NDP gains against them. Duceppe and the Bloc are likely in a tailspin as to what to do now, as he has fired what limited cannons he had at Harper, and run out of ammunition that is suitable to direct at his new primary enemy in Quebec, ...Layton.

I'll bet he didn't see that one coming LOL He thought Iggy and Jack were his friends in arms ;-)

Edit to add: I don't hink all this will translate into enough seats for the NDP to form government and put Layton in the PMO. Unless of course the numbers end up as such that the NDP come in second, and he can form a majority coalition with the Liberals and get with Bloc support. But I don't think Duceppe is likely to view them as allies any more once this is all over. He in fact may have to get in bed with the Conservatives just to save his own political bacon.

Edit further. By the way, I know Ignatieff has said in no uncertain terms now that he would not try to form a coalition if the numbers worked out. But as far as I know he has never said he would not participate in one if layton was the organizer and asked him on board. In that sense, he still left the option open.

Nab

[Urbane]

Here's something interesting. In 2008 here are the final seat projections from four pollsters:

Ekos: CPC - 136, Lib - 77, NDP - 37, Bloc - 49

Lislop: CPC - 135, Lib - 87, NDP - 33, Bloc - 51

DS: CPC - 126, Lib - 92, NDP - 36, Bloc - 52

EPP: CPC - 125, Lib - 94, NDP - 36, Bloc - 51

Actual results on election night in 2008:

CPC - 143, Lib - 77, NDP - 37, Bloc - 49

The above came from the Ekos site by the way (http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2 ... port-card/) but the numbers tell me that the pollsters last time underestimated the Conservative vote (at least the seats to be won) and most of the ones that Ekos lists overestimated the Liberal seats as well. I wonder if the Conservative strength is being underestimated this time as well and if so why?

[daria]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkyQNnL3icc&feature=relmfu[/youtube]

[Al Czervic]

Mercer makes some good points. I have always been of the mind that the only poll that matters is the one on election day.

[Urbane]

Here's an excellent analysis of what might happen on Monday night:

Lorne Gunter Apr 27, 2011

Jack Layton and the NDP's rise could pave the path for a Conservative majority.
Unless the NDP surge continues to grow through to next Monday’s election, the biggest beneficiaries will be the Tories. Thanks to vote splitting on the left — the NDP with the Liberals in much of Canada; the NDP with the Bloc in Quebec — the Tories will win a plurality in enough close ridings to take a slim majority of seats.

We could be watching the annihilation of the Liberals, à la the Progressive Conservatives in 1993. The NDP could be gaining so much, so fast that they all but wipe out the Liberals, in much the same way as the PCs were reduced to two seats in the election following Brian Mulroney’s departure. It could happen, but I doubt it.

The parallel here is 1997, not 1993. We’ll see an NDP result no one would have predicted going into this race. And the Liberals will fall down further still; they might even find themselves the fourth party in Parliament. But for all the breathless headlines over the weekend about 100 seats for the NDP, such a result is highly improbable.

Going into the election 14 years ago, the bloom had come off the Liberal rose. The party was mired in the first of a series of ethics scandals that would plague it for a decade and its leader, Jean Chrétien, enjoyed limited popularity outside the party base. He was perceived to have done a mediocre job in the leaders’ debates. The party’s strategy was, mostly, to warn Canadians that the recovery from the early-’90s recession was too fragile and the nation’s finances too perilous still to risk a change in government. Neither Mr. Chrétien nor his party offered much in the way of positive vision for the country under another Liberal majority.

A Liberal minority government was a real possibility, especially when, about two weeks before voting day, the Reform party began to surge in the polls. Then, too, there were swooning headlines about the upstart Western party’s chances of a breakthrough in heartland Ontario.

But Reform’s surge petered out in the campaign’s final week. And it was spread too thin. While the party had ceased to be an oddity in Ontario outside Greater Toronto, it lacked the organization and devoted following to a) create a critical mass of support and b) get out its vote in sufficient numbers. It ended up with over 19% of the popular vote nationwide, but added just eight seats from its 1993 showing (60 versus 52).

Reform won the second-largest number of seats in the House of Commons. The party formed the official opposition. Nonetheless, the Liberals held onto a four-seat majority.

During the campaign’s final week, the Liberals ran a very quiet, but very successful, campaign in Ontario. They barely whispered that a minority government would be risky. It would be unstable. It would be too chancy to let some wild-eyed radicals — Reform — hold the balance of power. The safe choice for Ontario voters was Liberal, and that is just how undecideds in Ontario voted.

Reform won a moral victory in Ontario. It convinced tens of thousands of new voters to choose it. But ultimately a switch to Reform was seen as too risky. So despite their surge, the party failed to pick up the dozens of extra seats some analysts had projected.

I think something similar will happen on May 2.

Rather than peaking on election day, the NDP surge will have been shown to have peaked a week before. While the party’s support will have increased, it will have been seen by Ontario’s undecided voters as too risky to cast a ballot for. And in Quebec, it will have been too long in the wilderness to overcome the Bloc’s head start in support and organization. When the dust settles, new NDP members will have been elected in Quebec, but in nowhere near enough ridings to displace the Bloc as the province’s majority party.

Similarly in the rest of Canada, the NDP might slip past the Liberals into second place. But more likely, the party’s support will be too highly concentrated in large urban areas to translate into two or three times more seats.

My guess is on May 3, Stephen Harper will have a small majority and Jack Layton will simply have a better argument for proportional representation.

National Post
[email protected]

[Urbane]

Final prediction:

Conservative minority
NDP official opposition
Liberals and Bloc lose seats

[NAB]

I'll pretty much go along with two out of three of those Urbane, but predict a Conservative majority rather than a minority. I don't know about the Bloc yet, but fer sure the Liberals are toast IMO. Looks good to me in any event.

Edit to add: Whatever happens, it seems clear that Canadians blame all our problems on the Liberals for the most part, not the Conservatives or the NDP. And that is very gratifying. The only thing that would would make me feel even better would be if Mark Holland got defeated in Pickering-Ajax. Alas it appears at this point he will not be, but upsets to forecasts and polls can still happen. I'll keep my fingers crossed on that one in any case, as I really really don't like that guy.

Edit to add: If anyone cares to help out, feel free to join in at Operation: Turf Mark Holland.
http://www.turfmholland.ca/

Nab

[Corneliousrooster]

it seems clear that Canadians blame all our problems on the Liberals for the most part, not the Conservatives or the NDP.

i don't think everyone blames all our problems on the liberals rather we don't have confidence that the liberals would be capable of fixing our problems.

[NAB]

it seems clear that Canadians blame all our problems on the Liberals for the most part, not the Conservatives or the NDP.

i don't think everyone blames all our problems on the liberals rather we don't have confidence that the liberals would be capable of fixing our problems.

Either way works for me Corny

Edit to add: Of course not everyone (in fact only a minority) even agree that Canada has many major problems, at least of our own government''s making. I suppose that's why most of the discussion in this election is over petty issues.

Nab

[NAB]

Back to Mark Holland's seat.. Seems you just cannot keep some of these NDP'rs on the job LOL

Excerpt from: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadav ... ding.html#

"'Desperate' hours in Ajax-Pickering fight

Under the blue banner is Toronto-born, Oxford-educated Chris Alexander, 42, an election rookie who earned his chops in the foreign service. He's up against Mark Holland, 36, three-time federal election champ in the riding who's known as the Liberal pitbull in the House of Commons and the hometown boy in his riding.

Each is accusing the other of desperate measures.

"We see the desperation on all levels," Alexander says of the Liberals on the national and local stage.

"This is a sense of the desperation they have," says Holland of the other team.

Questions have dogged both. Alexander is brushing off about $10,000 in campaign donations received from the anti-gun control lobby determined to unseat Holland as a "tiny fraction" of the total amount. The Liberals also latched onto a quote where Alexander said the Conservatives will give tax relief first to businesses, then to families

"There is no government in my lifetime that has delivered more relief for families," he counters.

Meanwhile, Holland denied suggestions that the two underdog parties — the NDP and Green Party, who don't typically top 9,000 votes collectively in the riding — might be colluding with the Liberals by lowering their presence this campaign.

NDP candidate Jim Koppens made headlines after it was revealed he went on a holiday in the midst of the campaign."

Nab

[Urbane]

And here's one more prediction/seat projection from the Global News site:

TORONTO - The Liberals and NDP would have enough seats to form coalition government if Stephen Harper's Conservatives win a minority on May 2, according to Barry Kay, an expert on public opinion and elections.

The following seat projection is based upon a blending and weighting of polls conducted by Ipsos, Nanos, Ekos, Forum Research, Harris Decima, Leger and Angus Reid.

This aggregate represents interviews with over 10,000 respondents.

The numbers show that the momentum to the NDP has not abated over the closing days of the campaign, but the seat changes are largely from the Bloc Quebecois and to a lesser extent from the Liberals.

The Conservatives also lose a few seats to the NDP in Quebec and British Columbia but offset it with a gain from the Liberals in Ontario and the Atlantic region.

These figures suggest the Conservatives will end up with the approximate number of seats they held before the election, and will fall short of a majority.

SEAT BREAKDOWN

Canada

Conservative: 144

Liberal: 51

NDP: 98

Bloc: 15