The Canadian Federal Election of 2011

[heymac]

Here are some interesting and perhaps surprising numbers to take away from this election:

The election of 2011 had some numerical surprises.

The Conservative Party received 39.6% of the vote and 54% of the seats across the country as a whole. However, factor out Quebec — that is, examine the rest of Canada without it — and the Tory numbers rise to 47.7% of the vote and 68% of the seats.

The Conservatives’ 5.8-million vote tally Monday was the third-highest raw total for any party in any general election in Canadian history. It falls short of the 6.3-million-vote haul that led the Mulroney Conservatives to their 1984 landslide, but ahead of the 5.6-million the Chrétien Liberals garnered in the pivotal contest of 1993.

On Monday night, the Tories received almost as many votes in Ontario (2,455,900) as the Liberals did in the entire country (2,783,175).

The Liberal Party only held or lost seats; it did not take a single constituency away from its competitors.

The Bloc Québécois’ vote total withered from about 1.38-million to 890,000, a drop of 35.5%.

Adam McDowell, National Post

http://www.fairvote.ca/en/Canadians-cheated-again-by-voting-system

[Tacklewasher]

Was Harper prepared for an election well ahead of time, yes. What smart person wouldn't be with what had been happening and all the threats. The fact that the ones causing the problem couldn't understand that is their own foolishness. If you (anyone out there) were in that position I would hope you would have the intelligence to be prepared.

This.

Hard to say he wanted the election just because he was prepared for it when the writing was clearly on the wall. That the Lib's were not as prepared just speaks volumes to why they were decimated.

[Tacklewasher]

The budget vote was next in line. He refused to compromise on it. He wanted a fight over that. The others just thought the non-confidence motion was a better bet.

Guess they were wrong.

[Al Czervic]

You're so daft in believing Harper did not cause & want this election.

Of course he wanted it…..but even a rank partisan like you must conceded that in this case indeed it was created by the vote from the Liberals, the BLOC and the NDP.

if that is so, why all the ads for 3 or 4 months before the call? when quebec wanted so little to vote with him why did he not compromise? the ndp also would have dealt to have no call but again no movement. Harper wanted the election as much as every else if not more. Why were the cpc the only party fully ready at the call?

The call by harper worked out for him so it was a smart move. why take that away from him.

I am NOT taking anything away from Harper….I fully agreed that Harper DID want this election. Nab (not me) is the one suggesting Harper did not. This is one of those very rare occasions where I agree with you, Harper did indeed want this election. However it does not change the fact that coalition opposition were the ones who created this election when they voted to topple the “Harper” Government.

[Urbane]

Either way (whether Harper wanted an election or not) the opposition parties didn't play their hand very well. Duceppe and Ignatieff were rejected by the voters, even in their home ridings, and Layton will have far less influence now. He will have that nice house to live in at taxpayers' expense and some other perks as Leader of the Official Opposition but the influence he had in a minority parliament are greatly diminished. Funny how the whole reason the election was called was supposedly about contempt of parliament etc. but the ultimate deciders, the people, saw others issues as being more important so the Conservative vote went up and not down since the last election.

[Al Czervic]

Either way (whether Harper wanted an election or not) the opposition parties didn't play their hand very well. Duceppe and Ignatieff were rejected by the voters, even in their home ridings, and Layton will have far less influence now. He will have that nice house to live in at taxpayers' expense and some other perks as Leader of the Official Opposition but the influence he had in a minority parliament are greatly diminished. Funny how the whole reason the election was called was supposedly about contempt of parliament etc. but the ultimate deciders, the people, saw others issues as being more important so the Conservative vote went up and not down since the last election.

Completely agree.

Although I believe that Layton will be MUCH happier in his new role then his old one.

[Urbane]

And what is the future of the Liberal Party? Rex Murphy:

Rex Murphy May 4, 2011

It was the greatest vote-harvesting instrument of its kind. People who knew elections swore there had been nothing like it before. It was called invincible, invulnerable. And for election after election it was the despair of opposition parties and the nightmare of their successive leaders.

No one lasted very long against this mighty Liberal Party of Newfoundland, and the all-time champion of electoral victories, its indomitable leader — the Horowitz of the Dropped Writ — Joseph R. Smallwood.

As I watched the unravelling of the current federal Liberal party under Michael Ignataieff, I kept returning mentally to the glory days of the Smallwood Liberal party so many years ago. The scale of Mr. Ignatieff’s loss on Monday night was analogous to the shock the Liberal party felt when the near-messianic Smallwood was finally knocked off by Frank Moores — with some considerable help from John Crosbie — way back in the ’70s.

Mr. Ignatieff didn’t simply lose the election Monday night. He led a real General Custer charge. It is going to be a long time before the once-great Liberal party returns to the field in any real strength. Since the losses began under Paul Martin and the Tories moved to dominate the centre, they cannot claim to be even a shell of what they once were.

When Smallwood — finally — lost power in March, 1972, it took only months for the great machine he had ridden to six consecutive victories, and which had scoured Newfoundland of any coherent Conservative support since 1949, to fall into disrepair and decay.

From invincibility to a joke in a matter of less than a year. It went through a passel of “leaders” for nearly two decades. Leadership conventions became almost a habit — each new leader for a while proving more ineffectual than the previous. It was a long walk in the wilderness for a party once both dreadfully feared and wildly admired. It was a shock to everyone that the party which had defined Newfoundland politics could fall so far, so fast and tumble into a kind of painful and yet jokey irrelevance.

I will not strain the comparison. Newfoundland in the early ’70s is not Canada in 2011, but there is a real moral to be drawn from the example. Nothing wilts or decays faster, nothing loses the shine of charisma more easily, than a political party (once successful and feared) after a brutal loss. During Smallwood’s tenure the great daydreams of his cabinet ministers was that one day he’d leave, and one of them would ascend, naturally and painlessly, to the “eternal” Liberal throne. They thought, as we say today, “the brand” was beyond taint or decline. It immediately suffered when serious people no longer regarded it seriously. No one of any stature, with a couple of honourable exceptions, wanted to lead it.

I thought I saw subtle signs of that process even on election night. Is Justin Trudeau going to be as eager to ascend to leadership now that the vehicle of his ambition is in so tattered and battered a state? It’s one thing to take over a state-of-the-art political operation, quite another to inherit an also-ran that couldn’t even defeat the perpetual Ms. Congeniality of Canadian politics, the New Democrats.

This party is no longer a stylish, smoothly-revving sports car. It’s now a battered 15-year-old clunker. It has been routed utterly, ripped from its own great history of victory. This takes from it the aura of success, that almost genetic component of the Liberal party for most of the last century, which was part of its unshakable appeal even when it did — occasionally — fall from government. Many of its top candidates have lost their own seats, and its battered state will make recruiting a new leader from the outside difficult, just as the Newfoundland Liberals found almost 40 years ago. It will take courage, great industry and much time to restore it to even a fraction of its former glory.

In Newfoundland, it was roughly 20 years before Liberals could announce they were contesting a general election without the electorate breaking out in tears or laughter, or sometimes tears of laughter. For the sake of Canadian politics, I hope the federal party has a quicker repair. The Liberal party — and even its enemies should concede this — is a necessary element of our political heritage and our political present. But it should not underestimate extent of its wounds, and the immense, Herculean efforts that will be required to bring it back to serious contention again.

National Post

[butcher99]

You're so daft in believing Harper did not cause & want this election.

Of course he wanted it…..but even a rank partisan like you must conceded that in this case indeed it was created by the vote from the Liberals, the BLOC and the NDP.

if that is so, why all the ads for 3 or 4 months before the call? when quebec wanted so little to vote with him why did he not compromise? the ndp also would have dealt to have no call but again no movement. Harper wanted the election as much as every else if not more. Why were the cpc the only party fully ready at the call?

The call by harper worked out for him so it was a smart move. why take that away from him.

I am NOT taking anything away from Harper….I fully agreed that Harper DID want this election. Nab (not me) is the one suggesting Harper did not. This is one of those very rare occasions where I agree with you, Harper did indeed want this election. However it does not change the fact that coalition opposition were the ones who created this election when they voted to topple the “Harper” Government.

Well, Harper could not very well call the election. He needed to produce a situation where one would be called. He produced it and the opposition tried to make an end run.

[NAB]

the opposition tried to make an end run

Actually, I am of the oppinion that it was Ignatieff who ntried to make an end run, and ran right off a cliff LOL

And Al is right. As I have said before, Harper did not force an election. Iggy did. But also as I have said, clearly Harper wasn't going to run away from one, since the odds in his favour of winning it were almost 100%. What amazes me is that Iggy and his ancient and out of touch back room crowd didn't seem to recognize that, no matter what they did they couldn't win. Which brings us full circle to his real intent, to form a coalition of the left.


Nab

[Al Czervic]

Well, Harper could not very well call the election. He needed to produce a situation where one would be called. He produced it and the opposition tried to make an end run.

Actually Harper COULD have called an election….however he already played that card back in 2008 when he DID call the election (and this was in defiance of his own “fixed” election date platform. )

Frankly, given how Harper successfully used the strategy of “this was an unnecessary election” message as one of the reasons to give Harper a majority and put an end to needless elections I was very surprised that NONE of the other candidates bothered to remind the public that three years ago Harper had NO problem calling an "unnecessary" election when Harper thought it would suit him. But whatever.

Food for thought. When Harper called the election in 2008 here was the seat count in the house at that time…

• Conservatives - 127
• Liberals - 95
• Bloc Quebecois - 48
• NDP - 30
• Independent - 4
• Vacant - 4
How things have changed….

[Al Czervic]

the opposition tried to make an end run

Actually, I am of the oppinion that it was Ignatieff who ntried to make an end run, and ran right off a cliff LOL

And Al is right. As I have said before, Harper did not force an election. Iggy did. But also as I have said, clearly Harper wasn't going to run away from one, since the odds in his favour of winning it were almost 100%. What amazes me is that Iggy and his ancient and out of touch back room crowd didn't seem to recognize that, no matter what they did they couldn't win. Which brings us full circle to his real intent, to form a coalition of the left.


Nab

I personally think Harper wanted an election just as badly (if not more so) then the rest of them did. Only Harper could not be the one calling it. How do you argue for a majority in order to prevent “unnecessary” elections where you are the guy who called the “unnecessary” election?

My own theory is that Harper was hoping to have an election over his budget….however I suspect that opposition knew that (or suspected it) and decided to be proactive and instead of going to the polls over a budget, they instead tried to go to the polls over the issue of misleading the house and making the election an ethics issue instead of a budget issue. It was a gamble on their part and I submit they lost, well at least Iggy and the BLOC.

Harper read the mood of the public and as we now know, the election played right into his hands. However I will give Harper lots of credit, it was a well played hand on his part.

[NAB]

Exactly. Iggy and gang really had to scramble at the last minute to find a way of not having to vote on the budget. They knew full well if that budget had of seen the light of day, they would have very little excuse to vote it down, and with the help of the NDP and nthe Bloc bring down the government on that basis as a result.

Nab

[Smurf]

Harper was smart enough to read the Canadian public and the ones that voted for his downfall weren't. Harper and the Conservatives voted against it. If even a few of the opposition had had any insite and realized it was bad timing, that some compromise would work better at that moment we could have had a completely different outcome down the road but we'll never know.

[Ranger66]

“I was very surprised that NONE of the other candidates bothered to remind the public that three years ago Harper had NO problem calling an "unnecessary" election when Harper thought it would suit him. But whatever.”

I am not surprised at all, as the campaign evolved there were several times when opportunities were missed and strategies never played. The Liberals and Bloc got the results they deserved and more than just the leader’s should be falling on their swords.

[Rwede]

I believe Iggy was seeing another minority in the polls was slowly trending to a majority for Harper, so Iggy jumped at the chance to form his Leftist Coalition before he thought it was too late. Unfortunately for Iggy (and fortunately for Canada), he's an igiot, pulled the trigger too late, and we now have a strong majority, duly elected by Canadians.